Following is my take away from ARK Investment Management LLC Big Investment Ideas 2021:
- According to ARK's research, deep learning will add $30 trillion to the global equity market capitalization during the next 15-20 years. IT is software 2.0, and Next Generation Of Computing Platforms.Deep Learning Is Creating A Boom In AI Chips. ARK estimates that data center spending on AI processors will scale more than four-fold during the next five years, from $5 billion a year today to $22 billion in 2025.
- Data Centers—The Power Plants Of Computation—Are Going Through A Revolution.For cloud computing, ARM, RISC-V, and graphics processing units (GPUs) are likely to emerge as the new powerhouse processors. Together they could scale at a 45% annual rate to $19 billion in revenue by 2030.
- Virtual Worlds Consist Of Video Games, Augmented Reality, And Virtual Reality. Revenue from virtual worlds will compound 17% annually from roughly $180 billion today to $390 billion by 2025.
- Digital Wallets Represent A $4.6 Trillion Opportunity In Your Pocket.• According to ARK’s research, digital wallets are valued between $250 and $1,900 per user today but could scale to $20,000 per user, representing a $4.6 trillion opportunity in the US by 2025.The volume of mobile payments in China has exploded more than 15-fold in just five years, from roughly $2 trillion in 2015 to an estimated $36 trillion, nearly three times the size of China’s GDP in 2020. Digital Wallets Have Become A Global Phenomenon.Traditional Banks Are Facing Potentially Sizeable Risks.
- The Price Of Bitcoin Has Hit An All-Time High, Supported By Robust Network Fundamentals.If all S&P 500 companies were to allocate 1% of their cash to bitcoin, ARK estimates that its price would increase by approximately $40,000.
- ARK Believes Bitcoin’s Rapid Growth Has Positioned It For An Allocation In Investment Portfolios.It could scale from roughly $500 billion1 to $1-5 trillion in network capitalization during the next five to ten years.
- Based on Wright’s Law, ARK forecasts that Electric Vehicles (EV) sales should increase roughly 20-fold from ~2.2 million in 2020 to 40 million units in 2025.At Today’s Battery Prices,Cell-To-Vehicle Technology Enables Longer Range EVs At Lower Prices.
- ARK believes automation will add 5%, or $1.2 trillion to US GDP during the next five years.
- ARK’s research suggests that autonomous ride-hailing platforms will generate more than $1 trillion in profits per year by 2030. In addition, automakers and fleet owners could enjoy profits of $250 billion and $70 billion, respectively.
- ARK believes that drone delivery platforms will generate roughly $275 billion in delivery revenues, $50 billion in hardware sales, and $12 billion in mapping revenue by2030.ARK believes that in the not-too-distant future drones will deliver our packages, food, and even people quicker and more conveniently than ever before. Drones are likely to transform shopping behavior, reduce travel time, and save lives.
- According to ARK's research, the orbital aerospace opportunity – including satellite connectivity and hypersonic flight – will exceed $370 billion annually. Thanks to advancements in deep learning, mobile connectivity, sensors, 3D printing, and robotics, costs that have been ballooning for decades are beginning to decline. As a result, the number of satellite launches and rocket landings is proliferating.
- ARK believes 3D printing will revolutionize manufacturing, growing at an annual rate of roughly 60% from $12 billion last year to $120 billion in 2025.
- ARK believes long-read technology offers superior accuracy, more comprehensive variant detection, and a richer set of features than short-read platforms. By the end of 2025, highly-accurate long and short-read sequencing should approach cost-parity, and estimate that long-read revenues will grow 82% at an annual rate, from $250 million in 2020 to roughly $5 billion in 2025.
- Liquid Biopsies Could Prevent More Cancer Deaths Than Any Medical Intervention in History.As a result, the multi-cancer screening market should scale to $150 billion in the US. A multi-cancer screening protocol could avert 66,000 cancer deaths per year in the US, saving 1.4 million human life years.
- New cell and gene therapy innovations could increase the total addressable market for oncology therapeutics by more than 20-fold.Cancer Therapies Are Shifting From Liquid To Solid Tumors.ARK Estimates That Allogeneic. Cells And Cellular Immunotherapies Could Create $250 Billion In Incremental Revenues.
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