7 Signs of Change 1. The Personal Consumption Expenditure drops for three consecutive months. www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm 2. Institutional “Money Flow”: which way is the wind blowing and how hard: www.wordenbrothers.com, Barrons – Commitment of Trades posts hedging data. 3. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) trending down for three to four months. www.businesscycle.com 4. Employment rate: * Non-farm employment begins to decrease www.bls.gov * After tax personal income flattens or falls www.treasury.gov/economic-plan/ * Total Federal Tax receipts decrease www.ustreas.gov/ 5. Durable goods spending flattens and/or decreases for four to five months out of six www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3 6. S&P 500 EPS growth drops for two or more quarters www.standardandpoors.com 7. Inflation/Deflation * Producer Price Index (PPI) www.bls.gov/ppi * Consumer Price Index (CPI) www.bls.gov/cpiThe Wealth Strategies Group
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