What do I need to know about Spreads?

A spread refers to the price difference between a nearby (spot) contract month vs. the next closest (or more distant delivery months) in the same commodity. The nearby month of a contract is usually cheaper than the distant month (this is due to the "Cost of Carry" - insurance, storage and interest for distant months and is known as a "discounted" market). Occasionally a market may "invert" and the nearby month will sell for more money than the distant months. This is known as a "premium" market. Commercial buying causes this phenomenon because of an urgent need for the commodity. The "cross" from a normal or "discounted" market (for the nearby or spot month) to an inverted or "premium" market is bullish. Below are some things to keep in mind when evaluating spreads:

1. It is bullish when a premium occurs, but it is very important to look at the relationship of the premium to the market itself. In other words, how is the spread performing with respect to price? You can time your entry into the market by looking for divergence between the spread and market price.

2. A declining market may also have an increasing premium in the spread, which can indicate that a bullish condition may be developing, even though price is declining.

3. If spread premium falters while a market rallies, it can be an indication that the market is nearing a top and is bearish.