Stock Cycles

So here we are in the 700's in the S&P500 in fall 2008, when according to the four year cycle we should be seeing bull market highs. Timing-wise the bottom of this ordinary bear market should be two years away. Based on the 752 close on 20 November 2008 (see blue cross in figure) we are essentially already at the bottom. Based on the latter assessment, I pulled the trigger and deployed most of my cash into the S&P500 on 20 November 2008. Only time will tell whether this was a wise move.

Safe Haven | Stock Cycles

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Buy When There is Blood in the Streets!

If we continue to follow the earlier decade's road map we should see a feeble recovery in 2009 followed by another collapse in 2010. Another feeble rise could get underway in 2011 and then we plunge to our final lows in 2012. The scary alternative is that a feeble recovery into 2009 is followed by a further collapse to new lows and while we follow the road map the final lows of 2012 are made some 40 to 50 per cent below today's lows. We certainly hope not but it is possible if things do not go well in attempting to restructure the world. But right now the scenario still calls for a rebound into 2009.

Safe Haven | Buy When There is Blood in the Streets!

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US Accoubt Balance

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A November Low Forming?

The US Dollar acting like 1991The US Dollar has rallied sharply much like it did in 1991 and there were banking and real estate problems back then too during the Savings and Loan crisis but that rally failed and the USD made new lows the following year, and I expect a similar outcome once the Dollar turns down soon.

Safe Haven | A November Low Forming?

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Will Fortune Favour The Brave In This Climate?

Mr George: Gold is at US$730 per ounce today. My expectation is that the price will be three times higher - that is, between US$2,000 and US$2,500 per ounce - in 2010 to 2012. The reason is simply that the amount of paper money created in order to stave off the crisis and reflate the banking system will take about 18 months to feed through into inflation, and that the value of the US$ will again fall sharply as a result. In addition, low or even zero interest rates will favour gold and other commodities. I also expect oil to rebound from the current low levels to at least US$200 within 2-3 years.

Safe Haven | Will Fortune Favour The Brave In This Climate?

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Turning

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As Yen Soars, Currency ETFs Ride Wave - News In Focus

With the yen reaching new highs against the dollar, exchange-traded products tracking the currency's rise are prospering.In fact, the three portfolios' performance has beaten almost every other ETF tracked so far this year heading into Friday. The only exceptions have been leveraged and inverse funds.One of the outperformers is actually an exchange-traded note, the iPath JPY/USD Exchange Rate ETN (NYSE: JYN). The other two are the Rydex Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: FXY) and the WisdomTree Dreyfus Japanese Yen Fund (NYSE: JYF).

As Yen Soars, Currency ETFs Ride Wave - News In Focus

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S&P Index

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Stock Picks

You know my game plan, which is to buy egregious amounts of The Mosaic Company (MOS: 33.66 +1.51%) , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV: 25.58 +8.71%) , (TBT: 63.617 +1.14%) and (UYG: 10.33 +1.18%) , while holding ample supplies of cash.

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