Has The S&P500 Bottom Out?

From the last two recessions, S&P500 bottom out when the 4 weeks moving average of Initial Claim peak and improved.

If history repeats, S$P500 has bottomed out in March'20, so when is the right time for an investor to start investing the S&P500 if you have missed out from recent rally?

My views is with current S&P500 is overvalued based on the fundamental analysis, S&P500 likely will be trading in a range for the next two years. Be patient, wait till S&P500 down to less than 2640.

Silver Vs Gold Relative Strength Follow-up Update

Follow-up on post https://jimmytradingroom.blogspot.com/2020/07/silver-vs-gold-relative-strength.html

Silver last few days as expected broke up stronger than gold....

GBPCAD DAILY CHART TRADE CALL

Silver Vs Gold Relative Strength

Silver daily price Relative Strength Vs Gold just crossed the 150EMA, look set to accelerate to move up to narrow the gap.

How You Can Withdraw Money Out From your CPF OA Without Touching Your Money From Higher Interest CPF SA After age 55 !

Follow-up on my last CPF Post Questions And Answers from CPF You Should Know Before You Turn Age 55

Point number 2: Any cash out after 55 from CPF account, you need to draw out from SA first till the SA is empty follow by OA.


There is a  way to withdraw money out from your OA without touching your money in higher interest SA :

• You can use your OA money to invest in CPF approved investment as long as your QA more than a min-sum of $20k and SA $40k.
• After you invested the money, you can apply to close your CPF OA investment account.
• Any dividend payout or you decided to liquidate your investment, the money will pay to your bank account instead of CPF OA account
• If you like to invest your money from your OA account again, you can apply to open a new investment account.

What Other Important Information You Should Look Into Before Invest In Any Life and Endowment Insurance Policy

Before you decided to invest in any Life or Endowment Insurance Policy. On top of  your insurance agent or Financial Planner shared with you the detail of the policy you plan to invest. You should look into the following information and compare with other similar policy from other Insurance company :

1) Investment Return %

All the Life/Endowment policy will indicate the projected return based on around 3.25% and 4.75% ( Different Insurance companies may indicate slightly different % return )

Please take note, if you like to compare it with the saving bank interest rate. This is not the info you looking for. You should zoom into to small Note below the Benefit Illustration table looking for the yield at maturity % p. a return to compare it with the bank saving interest rate or other investment returns.

Example as below

2) Participating Fund Performance

This information is important as from the information you can judge whether the Insurance company can meet the higher projected investment return E.g 4.5% (Maturity yield of 3.44%)  using the above example.

Following are the Participating Fund Performance for Some of the Singapore Insurance Companies :

a) GE

b) Manulife

c) Tokio Marine

d) NTUC

From the above four Insurance companies fund performance analysis, Manulife's average 3 years return is the worst. NTUC is the only Insurance company in Y2018 that generated positive returns.

3) Expense Ratios 

Expanse rations are the cost of managing the participating fund, so the lowest the % the better.

Following are the Expense Rations for some of the Singapore Insurance Companies :

a) GE

b) Manulife

c) Tokio Marine

d) NTUC

 

 

From the above four Insurance companies Expense Ratios analysis, Manulife's is the worst as it incurred higher costs. NTUC incurred the lowest costs.


4) Total Distribution Cost

The Total distribution cost is how much you are paying for the distribution cost. The lowest cost the better.

E,g a) You dived the distribution cost by the Premium paid ($12376/$180073) you get 6.87% which is a very high cost!

E.g b) $5828/$160000 only 3.6% !!!

In Summary, do your homework, no need to rush,  take your time to find out all the similar policies from all insurance companies, did the analysis , and invest in the most value for money policy.

Why All Investors Must Know the GDP Formula !

GDP also = Money * Velocity = Price * Quantity

Currently, almost all countries' consumption, investment, and Export/Imports are all badly impacted bu the Covid-19 pandemic. Only Government spending for almost all countries keeps increasing.... this comes with a cost ..Our financial economy is presently overwhelmed by too much debt, both public and private for most of the countries.

As an investor, you need to aware that there are only two ways to resolve a debt crisis without a strong GDP -- either default or inflate with the caveat that inflation is simply a slow-motion default.

As of now despite all the money printing, the Velocity of money has declined at a similar pace. This resulted in we are currently in deflation, not inflation which is temporary good for bond investors.

But, Fiat currency created by the central bank as a rate greater than economic growth will definitely lead to inflation !!!

Conclusion : The only investment I am  bullish in currently money printing, deflation environment, and coming inflation to resolved a debt crisis is -----Gold. 

Global PEG Ratio. Singapore Market Still Very Over Value

The current PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio shows Spain, Korea, and Brazil have the best value characteristics...
Both Singapore and Australia equity markets are most overvalue.

Conclusion : STI Index likely has more downside than upside.

Why start to invest in Silver now !!! - Update

Why start to invest in Silver now !!!

Update :

Why Gold Fundamental is Very Bullish !!! --Update