Debt Deflation Bear Market Update Part I: 2009 Windup - Eric Janszen - iTulip.com

Will these market and economic anomalies diminish, the markets recover, and the economy return to normal within the timescale of the 50 or 60 year old buy-and-hold stock investor? Perhaps, but more likely a transformation of the entire structure of the global markets and economy is starting that will take decades to resolve.In my view, these historic events will next year be complicated by political responses to high unemployment globally, and it is reasonable to expect that some of these responses will not be entirely constructive.

The stock market buy-and-hold era ended in 1998. In a world where the so-called business cycle is dominated by bubbles, inflation, crashes, deflation, recession, and reflations and all manner of government interference, stock market timing, and sector analysis, will continue to be the key to making money. In fact, across the broad stroke of American history, there is never a period when markets are not either largely or entirely influenced by the actions of government. For hundreds of years the US has either been at war, recovering from war, growing asset bubbles, crashing asset bubbles, recovering from asset bubbles, or mucking around with the monetary system–entering the gold standard, leaving the gold standard, entering into a new global monetary regime, leaving that regime– endlessly. How can markets possibly be efficient if they are perpetually driven by large-scale events produced by government policies? The idea is profoundly naive.

Debt Deflation Bear Market Update Part I: 2009 Windup - Eric Janszen - iTulip.com

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Debt Deflation Bear Market Update Part I: 2009 Windup - Eric Janszen - iTulip.com

That forecast back in 2001 was complicated by the housing bubble, the most idiotic and irresponsible act of government economic manipulation in world history and completely beyond me to predict. Not even in my darkest dreams did I think our Federal Reserve and banking regulators could be so stupid: bursting real estate bubbles bring down banking systems and economies. They did in the US in the 1870s and 1930s, in Japan since the 1990s, and many other nations as well. The US 2002 to 2006 housing bubble extended the tax cut, rate cut, dollar devaluation reflation boom by two of years longer than the 1930s version sans housing bubble. As you can see, that extension made the collapse we are seeing today considerably more severe.

Now we have a post bubble reflation boom crashing around the fake boom created by the technology stock bubble- two crashes nested one within the other– thus the terrific cascading financial and economic collapse we see today.We wrote dozens of occasionally over-the-top, but always factual and data driven, warnings on iTulip.com since March 2006 to try to scare readers out of the stock market. As it turns out, we were able to determine and notify subscribers on Dec. 27, 2007 when the DJIA was trading at 13,365 that, if they were for some crazy reason still in the market, that was it: the last chance to get out.

Debt Deflation Bear Market Update Part I: 2009 Windup - Eric Janszen - iTulip.com

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Past Financial Crises

Broadly speaking, financial crises are protracted affairs. More often than not, the aftermath of severe financial crises share three characteristics. First, asset market collapses are deep and prolonged. Real housing price declines average 35 percent stretched out over six years, while equity price collapses average 55 percent over a downturn of about three and a half years. Second, the aftermath of banking crises is associated with profound declines in output and employment. The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle, which lasts on average over four years. Output falls (from peak to trough) an average of over 9 percent, although the duration of the downturn, averaging roughly two years, is considerably shorter than for unemployment. Third, the real value of government debt tends to explode, rising an average of 86 percent in the major post-World War II episodes.

Thoughts from the Frontline

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JimRogers

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The 10 Laws of Lifetime Growth

THE LAWSof Lifetime Growth:

LAW ONE: Always make your future bigger than your past. Find out more

LAW TWO: Always make your learning greater than your experience. Find out more

LAW THREE: Always make your contribution bigger than your reward. Find out more

LAW FOUR: Always make your performance greater than your applause. Find out more

LAW FIVE: Always make your gratitude greater than your success. Find out more

LAW SIX: Always make your enjoyment greater than your effort. Find out more

LAW SEVEN: Always make your cooperation greater than your status. Find out more

LAW EIGHT: Always make your confidence greater than your comfort. Find out more

LAW NINE: Always make your purpose greater than your money. Find out more

LAW TEN: Always make your questions bigger than your answers. Find out more

The 10 Laws of Lifetime Growth

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"Official" US Unemployment Rate circled in red below

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Oil

Russia will need $70 oil. These countries are going to need to produce and sell what they can, which is in conflict with the need to control production and move prices higher.So far, the OPEC nations are not cutting back any significant amount of production compared with the destruction in demand. Oil is backing up in the system. Energy economist Philip Verleger suggests that OPEC should execute an "astounding 7.7 million barrels per day" just to restore market balance today. Global demand is down by over 5 million barrels a day to 81.6 million barrels a day. Non-OPEC countries produce almost 50 million barrels of oil. OPEC produces roughly 31 million, plus there are some other OPEC sources of about 5 million barrels equivalent in natural gas liquids. Thus, Verleger says OPEC oil production needs to drop by almost 25%, to somewhere under 24 million barrels a day. Think Iran or Venezuela will cut that much, given their need for cash to fund their regimes? Will Russia join OPEC and cut production? It will be interesting to watch Iran and Venezuela in the coming year scramble to maintain power.

Thoughts from the Frontline

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Value ?

One year ago Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) paid $100bn for ABN Amro. For this amount it could now buy:- Citibank $22.5bn- Morgan Stanley $10.5bn- Goldman Sachs $21bn- Merrill Lynch $12.3bn- Deutsche Bank $13bn- Barclays $12.7bnAnd still have $8bn change which would allow you to pick up:- GM- Ford- Chrysler and- The Honda F1 Team

Michael Covel: Trend Following

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Stock Cycles

So here we are in the 700's in the S&P500 in fall 2008, when according to the four year cycle we should be seeing bull market highs. Timing-wise the bottom of this ordinary bear market should be two years away. Based on the 752 close on 20 November 2008 (see blue cross in figure) we are essentially already at the bottom. Based on the latter assessment, I pulled the trigger and deployed most of my cash into the S&P500 on 20 November 2008. Only time will tell whether this was a wise move.

Safe Haven | Stock Cycles

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